Can Our Guys Beat the Odds?

We all want the guys to win, but can they?  What are the odds?  Has anyone come back for the second time and won again?

In the 68-year history of Sanremo, only ONE person, as a solo entry, has come back and won twice.  This was Peppino Di Capri, who won in both 1973 and 1976.  There have been several solo acts that have won, that were previously part of a duo, or trio…. they are:  1971 – Nada & Nicola Di Bari and in 1972 – Nicola Di Bari; 1987 – Gianni Morandi, Enrico Ruggeri, Umberto Tozzi and 1993 – Enrico Ruggeri (who also wrote his own song); 1989 – Anna Oxa and Fausta Leali and 1999 – Anna Oxa.  Anna had the greatest comeback with a 10-year spread.  So, 1999 was the last year where someone won, that had previously won before whether individually, or part of a group.  No other group has won twice.  If the guys win this, this will be a first in the history, for one group to win twice.  It has been 20 years since someone has come back and won twice!

Specifically speaking of the odds, let’s go back four years to 2015.  The Italian bookmakers predicted that Il Volo would win back in 2015.  However, the odds were about 3 to 1; with their buddy Lorenzo Fragola, coming in 2nd place.  Nek was WAY down on the scoreboard at number 16!  However, we all know that it was literally “neck and neck” with Nek and the guys at the end, with them winning by a very small margin – winning, none-the-less.  🙂  Remember, they were the favorites.  I could not find any data on the actual percentage that they had them winning by, as the data I found was just an end result and they stop the odds the day the competition ends.  It may be interesting to see how the odds may change up to the finals on Saturday.

Let’s fast-forward to today, this week!  I believe D-Squared, both told me that this guy known as Ultimo is destined to win this 69th Edition of Sanremo (just like Il Volo in 2015).  First off, he actually won the “newcomer” award last year in 2018 and he also wrote his own song.  Nothing against the guys, but I think if you write your own music, and it is good, you have a definite advantage over those who don’t.   He is also young and very popular.  His real  name is Niccolò Moriconi, but goes by Ultimo.  The bookies have him winning 24% of the vote, Irama at 16%, and Il Volo at 13%.  Pretty tough odds – almost twice the percentage points.  However, if you look at the odds from 2015 with the bookies having Nek at #16 and him moving to within close points to almost beat Il Volo – well, I guess anything could happen.  Hey, they have the Pope on their side?  🙂   This reminds me of a great line from one of my favorite movies – Trouble with Angels.  I don’t remember what the scene was, but I believe there was some kind of competition or some disagreement.  Rosalind Russell played the Mother Superior and her response was, “I have God, on my side!”   🙂 Of course, it’s always “Thy will be done…”  Maybe it’s Ultimo’s time?

At one point, the bookies did have Il Volo at 2nd place, however, something must have happened to change the odds – not sure what that could have been?

See below for the current full odds of the Italian bookmakers, compared with 2015:

1-sanremo bets

There have been some beautiful pictures being sent from Sanremo from our guys and Il Volo Music.  One that is very touching, is one sent by Piero.  He finds the plaque in the sidewalk, with their infamous win from 2015.  What memories and emotions, just seeing it there, must bring back?  We ask ourselves… why are they doing this again?  They must know in their hearts that the chances of winning again are very slim.  Even if they come in second place, which is still a great honor; it is not winning.  It is a great risk for them.  Of course the fans will still love them, for we are not “fair weather fans!”  We know they are strong, but if they do not win, we will support them, along with their family and friends.  Just like we did for Eurovision.

1-sanremo award

No matter what, they have an awesome world-wide tour plan and hey, as far as I’m concerned, they have saved the “best for last” for the United States and the few dates in Canada, but we all know how that could change and if the other parts of the world go well, they could easily add more dates in the US and Canada.  Yes, they will be in Canada, but only Montreal and Toronto, both on the East side of the country.  A long way from the West or Central areas of the country.  But still just a plane ride away, at least it’s in the same country.   I know many of us Americans are thinking…. how can I get to Italy in September??  🙂  Ok, is it just me??  lol!  

Whatever happens guys, buono fortuna siempre!!

So, will the sun set on their dream of repeating their win at Sanremo, or will the dawn break another new beginning in the chapter of their lives to start their next 10 years together?  We will find out on Saturday, February 9, 2019!!

This weekend, along with the finals, the Detroit Il Volo gals will also be celebrating Gian’s birthday!  So, we will have a celebration, no matter what – of course, we hope for a dual reason!!  🙂  

Ciao!

Jana

p.s.  I was really sweating it there when my cable station had not yet put on there about Sanremo, however, it was finally there yesterday and I have my DVR all set up to tape it on the RAI1 station!  🙂

Thank you to the following websites for my sources:

https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/sanremo_2015

https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/sanremo

https://www.altrospettacolo.it/sanremo-2019-chi-vince/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanremo_Music_Festival

 

 

 

42 thoughts on “Can Our Guys Beat the Odds?”

    1. We are planning on going to Italy to see IL VOLO again and can’t wait to purchase tickets for one of their concerts. It’s a long way from our home in Auckland but well worth the effort. Recommend any fans of IL VOLO to do likewise – an unforgettable wonderful experience!

  1. Jana, Believe it or not…..I will be in Italy in September. I’ve been planning this foray for a year. Verona is on my list. I’m only sad that I can’t get RAI on my satellite service. I’m still looking for backdoors, though. Thank you for always keeping us posted and updated about our guys. I, as I hope everyone is, praying for Il Volo’s success. Here’s a thought…… If they don’t win at Sanremo, perhaps this is the year they get the nod for their coveted Grammy. (For 2020 when they will already be in the states) ❤️❤️❤️

    1. How awesome for you to be there in September! I hope you are able to work your plans around their schedule!

      It’s just a pipe dream for me right now. Really wish I could do matera, but it is difficult to get there.

      1. I’ve been looking at Matera and Verona. I need to be alert to ticket sales. That part is difficult because I am not fluent in Italian. I will be though. 😁

    2. Leslie – have you signed up for the Il Volo Fan Club? Although most of us know when the tickets are going on sale before you get an email, they do email you with info on how to purchase tickets and the email comes in 3 languages – English, Spanish, and Italian. 🙂 It costs roughly about $25 and you do get info on exclusive events if you are in Italy. Not so much anywhere else, though – at least not so far. Here is the website link and at the top, you will see fan club. If you click on that, it will give you the details. If it doesn’t automatically come up in English, there is a little “Brit” flag icon and that is English (lol). https://www.ilvolomusic.com/en/

      1. THANK YOU!!! I’m probably going to shoot for Verona. Of course if there are others in reach, I’ll do that too. WOOHOO!

  2. Jana, beautiful post.
    ULTIMO has always been a favorite, because since he won the Sanremo Young section last year, he has had many concerts in Italy with sold out, is very popular with young girls. I must say that he is also good at writing the lyrics of his songs, and, as you say, if one writes his lyrics, he starts from a more favorable position.
    For some time, Ultimo and IL VOLO were given head to head, always last slightly ahead, now Irama entered. Both Irama and Ultimo, are very supported by the very young, but perhaps here in Italy, the power of the fans of IL VOLO is never taken into consideration.

  3. Jana, thanks for such an interesting article and all your research. I hope they win for the joy it will give them, but like everyone else it won’t change how I feel about them.

  4. Thanks Jana! This is so risky for them! I need to make sure I have enough Xanax at hand, ha ha! And you are so right. We are not “fair weather fans! We are all weather fans!

  5. Jana, Thank for all your time and energy you spend on keeping us updated on IlVolo. I look forward to all your post.
    Please keep us updated on their Sanremo performance.
    Thank you once again. 🙏🙏🙏

  6. Jana, Thank for all your time and energy you spend on keeping us updated on IlVolo. I look forward to all your post.
    Please keep us updated on their Sanremo performance.
    🙏🙏🙏

  7. My TV provider offers a station called Rai Italia. I am hoping this is Rai 1 because I ordered it and am paying for it! What time tomorrow does the show start? I know it will be afternoon here–I think I am 5 hours behind Italy (eastern time in the US & Canada). Can someone tell me when it starts?

      1. Isn’t Detroit on Central time? I’m in Toronto and it’s Eastern but I have relatives in Chicago, and I know that’s Central.

    1. I live in South Africa and have had RaiItalia for a long time. Looking at the Program Guide for you in America for tomorrow, it will be live on your TV provider at 4.15am the next morning at New York time.
      If you go onto the internet try http://www.rai.it/dl/raiinternationale which will give you the ‘Rai Italia – Guida Programmi’ click and on the resulting screen, choose the top block which says ‘Rai Italia America’. Hope it works for you – Ineke.

  8. Ciao! Same time zone as me!! So, should start around 2:45p I think. If you have a cable guide, the rai channel should be listed somewhere…

    Glad you were able to get it!! 🙂

    1. I’ll know it’s the right one when I see it! (You can tell I am a little bit skeptical!) If it doesn’t show San Remo then I will try to get it on my computer.
      And here’s a good idea–print out the lyrics of Musica Che Resta (and maybe the translation too) and keep them handy when they are singing!

      1. Oh shoot. I think they were on the net last week but I don’t remember where–I printed them out. Let me do a bit of sleuthing and maybe I can find them again.

  9. I’m in California. Anyone have aq channel suggestion? I will try RAI and see if it exists. I am so anxious to see if they will be in the USA at all. Are Verona tickets available as yet? what date is that in September?

    1. No dates have been announced except for the end of May, june 1, for Matera.

      Can add always try rai1 online….

      I will try to post some links tomorrow.

  10. Jana,
    Thank you for your research and update. I too offer my prayers for the win. I hope for the very best for them. But they are such level headed guys, always with a positive attitude and spin, plus very diplomatic—I am sure that they will handle the outcome well. But, here’s hoping that they make a historic second win. Mother Mary— Merciful Mother should be in their court as they just sang to her on her altar in front of the Pope. Best wishes for historic success for our guys.

  11. Jana–I looked everywhere. Can’t figure it out. But I have them. I’ll send them to you as an attachment to your email and you can post them if you want so everyone can have them. Check you email in a few minutes–I have to scan them first.

  12. Wish they would do some other big cities in Ontario, like London or Hamilton as they have beautiful buildings with great acoustics for performances.

    Sincerely Carol Watson

    Sent from my iPad

    >

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